soccerholic

Locked winner picks

World Cup 2026Netherlands · 23.0 @ Betfair · 1.0u · OPEN

Odds frozen at log time · graded after the final

Winner odds

bookmaker vs prediction market

Who wins the World Cup? · two markets compared

$3.22BPM vol

Two independent estimates of the same question. Δ = prediction-market minus bookmaker — a gap is where the two markets disagree. Probabilities only, not a tip.

Team

Bookmaker

Prediction

France

17.4%

21.6%

+4.2

Argentina

12.2%

16.1%

+3.8

Spain

13.8%

13.1%

−0.7

England

11.2%

10.2%

−1.0

Portugal

7.6%

7.8%

+0.1

Brazil

6.1%

5.7%

−0.4

Netherlands World Cup 2026

5.4%

5.5%

+0.2

Germany

5.7%

4.5%

−1.1

USA

2.8%

−0.1

Norway

2.6%

+0.0

Japan

1.9%

1.6%

−0.3

Colombia

1.5%

−0.1

Bookmaker implied (margin removed): Betfair, William Hill · prediction market: Polymarket · you decide.

Pick history

1 open · 82 settled

World Cup

1 open · 72 settled

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Result	CLV
19 Jul	World Cup 2026	Netherlands	23.0	OPEN	+21.5%
27 Jun	Algeria v Austria	Draw	2.36	WON	+1.5%
27 Jun	Jordan v Argentina	Argentina	1.21	WON	−3.0%
27 Jun	Colombia v Portugal	Portugal	1.96	LOST	+0.2%
27 Jun	DR Congo v Uzbekistan	DR Congo	1.81	WON	−0.3%
27 Jun	Croatia v Ghana	Draw	3.4	LOST	+1.1%
27 Jun	Panama v England	England	1.2	WON	−1.5%
26 Jun	New Zealand v Belgium	Belgium	1.21	WON	−0.7%
26 Jun	Egypt v Iran	Egypt	2.56	LOST	−1.4%
26 Jun	Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia	Cape Verde	2.6	LOST	+0.2%
26 Jun	Uruguay v Spain	Spain	1.56	WON	−0.9%
26 Jun	Norway v France	France	1.71	WON	−2.3%
26 Jun	Senegal v Iraq	Senegal	1.26	WON	−1.3%
25 Jun	Paraguay v Australia	Draw	2.4	WON	+1.5%
25 Jun	Turkey v USA	Draw	4.35	LOST	+0.3%
25 Jun	Japan v Sweden	Draw	3.6	WON	−1.6%
25 Jun	Tunisia v Netherlands	Netherlands	1.16	WON	+1.0%
25 Jun	Curaçao v Ivory Coast	Ivory Coast	1.18	WON	−2.2%
25 Jun	Ecuador v Germany	Germany	2.0	LOST	+14.8%
24 Jun	South Africa v South Korea	South Korea	1.69	LOST	+1.7%
24 Jun	Czech Republic v Mexico	Draw	4.14	LOST	+1.1%
24 Jun	Scotland v Brazil	Brazil	1.42	WON	+4.4%
24 Jun	Morocco v Haiti	Morocco	1.23	WON	+0.8%
24 Jun	Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar	Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.49	WON	+6.3%
24 Jun	Switzerland v Canada	Draw	3.15	LOST	+0.0%
23 Jun	Colombia v DR Congo	Colombia	1.56	WON	−4.3%
23 Jun	Panama v Croatia	Croatia	1.59	WON	+1.6%
23 Jun	England v Ghana	England	1.25	LOST	−1.0%
23 Jun	Portugal v Uzbekistan	Portugal	1.25	WON	+3.3%
22 Jun	Jordan v Algeria	Algeria	1.62	WON	+4.4%
22 Jun	Norway v Senegal	Norway	2.44	WON	+8.4%
22 Jun	France v Iraq	France	1.12	WON	+0.5%
22 Jun	Argentina v Austria	Argentina	1.63	WON	+6.5%
21 Jun	New Zealand v Egypt	Egypt	1.66	WON	−0.6%
21 Jun	Uruguay v Cape Verde	Uruguay	1.54	LOST	+0.9%
21 Jun	Belgium v Iran	Belgium	1.47	LOST	−1.7%
21 Jun	Spain v Saudi Arabia	Spain	1.13	WON	−1.5%
20 Jun	Tunisia v Japan	Japan	1.61	WON	+1.2%
20 Jun	Ecuador v Curaçao	Ecuador	1.14	LOST	−1.5%
20 Jun	Germany v Ivory Coast	Germany	1.59	WON	+0.9%
20 Jun	Netherlands v Sweden	Netherlands	1.78	WON	+0.5%
19 Jun	Turkey v Paraguay	Turkey	2.08	LOST	−2.2%
19 Jun	Brazil v Haiti	Brazil	1.14	WON	—
19 Jun	Scotland v Morocco	Morocco	1.81	WON	—
19 Jun	USA v Australia	USA	1.66	WON	—
18 Jun	Mexico v South Korea	Draw	3.5	LOST	+1.5%
18 Jun	Canada v Qatar	Draw	6.25	LOST	−0.9%
18 Jun	Switzerland v Bosnia & Herzegovina	Draw	4.3	LOST	+0.4%
18 Jun	Czech Republic v South Africa	Czech Republic	1.83	LOST	−4.4%
17 Jun	Uzbekistan v Colombia	Colombia	1.42	WON	−0.2%
17 Jun	Ghana v Panama	Ghana	2.28	WON	−4.8%
17 Jun	England v Croatia	England	1.77	WON	−1.8%
17 Jun	Portugal v DR Congo	Portugal	1.33	LOST	−1.6%
16 Jun	Austria v Jordan	Austria	1.37	WON	−2.5%
16 Jun	Argentina v Algeria	Argentina	1.43	WON	−10.1%
16 Jun	Iraq v Norway	Norway	1.22	WON	−2.3%
16 Jun	France v Senegal	France	1.5	WON	−4.2%
15 Jun	Iran v New Zealand	Iran	1.89	LOST	−6.5%
15 Jun	Saudi Arabia v Uruguay	Uruguay	1.48	LOST	−3.8%
15 Jun	Belgium v Egypt	Draw	4.1	WON	−1.6%
15 Jun	Spain v Cape Verde	Spain	1.12	LOST	−1.2%
14 Jun	Sweden v Tunisia	Sweden	1.99	WON	−0.4%
14 Jun	Ivory Coast v Ecuador	Draw	2.95	LOST	−1.9%
14 Jun	Netherlands v Japan	Draw	3.7	WON	−1.2%
14 Jun	Germany v Curaçao	Germany	1.06	WON	−1.4%
13 Jun	Australia v Turkey	Turkey	1.78	LOST	+2.8%
13 Jun	Haiti v Scotland	Scotland	1.6	WON	−2.4%
13 Jun	Brazil v Morocco	Brazil	1.73	LOST	−1.2%
13 Jun	Qatar v Switzerland	Switzerland	1.27	LOST	+0.3%
12 Jun	USA v Paraguay	USA	2.04	WON	−5.0%
12 Jun	Canada v Bosnia & Herzegovina	Canada	1.86	LOST	−1.6%
11 Jun	South Korea v Czech Republic	Draw	3.25	LOST	+0.3%
11 Jun	Mexico v South Africa	Mexico	1.47	WON	+0.5%

J1 League

10 settled

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Result	CLV
6 Jun	Kawasaki Frontale v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC	Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC	2.03	WON	—
6 Jun	Kashiwa Reysol v Kyoto Purple Sanga	Kashiwa Reysol	1.98	LOST	—
6 Jun	Yokohama F Marinos v Shimizu S Pulse	Yokohama F Marinos	2.4	WON	—
6 Jun	Urawa Red Diamonds v Fagiano Okayama	Urawa Red Diamonds	1.96	LOST	—
6 Jun	Tokyo Verdy v Gamba Osaka	Gamba Osaka	2.63	WON	—
6 Jun	FC Machida Zelvia v Nagoya Grampus	FC Machida Zelvia	2.11	WON	—
6 Jun	Mito HollyHock v V-Varen Nagasaki	Mito HollyHock	2.3	LOST	—
6 Jun	JEF United Chiba v Avispa Fukuoka	Avispa Fukuoka	2.65	WON	—
6 Jun	FC Tokyo v Cerezo Osaka	Draw	3.72	LOST	—
6 Jun	Kashima Antlers v Vissel Kobe	Kashima Antlers	2.5	WON	—

World Cup

J1 League

Winner odds

WC 2026 Simulator

Pick history

World Cup

J1 League