soccerholic

soccerholic.

Polymarket World Cup markets — public record

Record

63W · 39L

P/L

+$940

ROI

+9%

Avg CLV

-0.2%

P/L assumes $100 flat stake per pick · every pick public, including losses

World Cup

6 Jul – 7 Jul

Portugal vs Spain

World Cup · knockout · 6 Jul · Polymarket

Portugal23.5%

Draw26.5%

Spain51.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

Portugal

4.26

Polymarket

Draw

3.77

Polymarket

Spain

1.94

Polymarket

Amount$

Portugal wins

$426

Draw

$377

Spain wins

$194

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

Portugal — last 5

W 2–1 CroatiaD 0–0 ColombiaW 5–0 UzbekistanD 1–1 Congo DRW 9–1 Armenia

Spain — last 5

W 3–0 AustriaW 1–0 UruguayW 4–0 Saudi ArabiaD 0–0 Cabo VerdeD 2–2 Türkiye

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

1-0

Spain · Medium

Soccerholic AI

Spain's superior form and FIFA rank favor them in a tight knockout clash.

Spain ranked #2 vs Portugal #5, with stronger defensive record (2 GA vs 3 GA in last 5)
Market heavily backs Spain at 51.5% implied probability vs Portugal's 23.5%
Spain won all 3 World Cup group matches, Portugal drew twice including 0-0 vs Colombia

Risk

Knockout matches often tight; 26.5% draw probability reflects competitive balance
Portugal scored 17 goals in last 5 including 9-1 and 5-0 wins, showing attacking threat

◉ Our pick
Spain · 1.94 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

United States vs Belgium

World Cup · knockout · 7 Jul · Polymarket

United States34.5%

Draw29.5%

Belgium37.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

United States

2.9

Polymarket

Draw

3.39

Polymarket

Belgium

2.67

Polymarket

Amount$

United States wins

$290

Draw

$339

Belgium wins

$267

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

United States — last 5

W 2–0 Bosnia and Herze...L 2–3 TurkiyeW 2–0 AustraliaW 4–1 Paraguay

Belgium — last 5

W 3–2 SenegalW 5–1 New ZealandD 0–0 IranD 1–1 EgyptW 7–0 Liechtenstein

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

1-2

Belgium · Medium

Soccerholic AI

Belgium's superior FIFA rank and attacking form edge a tight knockout match against resilient USA.

Belgium ranked 9th vs USA 17th, with stronger recent goal output (16 goals in 5 matches vs 10 in 4)
Belgium won last match 3-2 showing resilience; USA lost 2-3 to Turkiye indicating defensive vulnerability
Market slightly favors Belgium (37.5%) over USA (34.5%) despite home advantage

Risk

USA's home advantage and recent wins over Australia/Paraguay could level the playing field
Knockout matches often tight; 29.5% draw probability suggests extra time is plausible

◉ Our pick
Draw · 3.39 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

Argentina vs Egypt

World Cup · knockout · 7 Jul · Polymarket

Argentina71.5%

Draw20.5%

Egypt9.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

Argentina

1.4

Polymarket

Draw

4.88

Polymarket

Egypt

10.53

Polymarket

Amount$

Argentina wins

$140

Draw

$488

Egypt wins

$1,053

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

Argentina — last 5

W 3–2 Cabo VerdeW 3–1 JordanW 2–0 AustriaW 3–0 AlgeriaW 2–0 Canada

Egypt — last 5

W 5–3 AustraliaD 1–1 IranW 3–1 New ZealandD 1–1 BelgiumW 1–0 Guinea-Bissau

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

2-0

Argentina · High

Soccerholic AI

Argentina's top FIFA rank and superior form should overcome Egypt in knockout stage.

Argentina ranked #1 globally vs Egypt #29, with 71.5% market probability reflecting quality gap
Argentina's perfect 5-0-0 record with 13 goals scored and only 3 conceded shows dominant form
Egypt's mixed form (3-2-0) and weaker defensive record (6 goals conceded) suggests vulnerability

Risk

Knockout format means Egypt only needs to survive 90 minutes for draw and potential penalties
Egypt's recent 5-3 win over Australia shows attacking threat capability

◉ Our pick
Draw · 4.88 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

Switzerland vs Colombia

World Cup · knockout · 7 Jul · Polymarket

Switzerland26.5%

Draw31.5%

Colombia43.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

Switzerland

3.77

Polymarket

Draw

3.17

Polymarket

Colombia

2.3

Polymarket

Amount$

Switzerland wins

$377

Draw

$317

Colombia wins

$230

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

Switzerland — last 5

W 2–0 AlgeriaW 2–1 CanadaW 4–1 Bosnia and Herze...D 1–1 QatarD 1–1 Kosovo

Colombia — last 5

W 1–0 GhanaD 0–0 PortugalW 1–0 Congo DRW 3–1 UzbekistanW 1–0 Uruguay

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

1-0

Colombia · Medium

Soccerholic AI

Colombia's superior form and defensive solidity give them the edge in a tight knockout encounter.

Colombia unbeaten in last 5 with 4 clean sheets vs Switzerland's 1, showing defensive superiority
FIFA rankings favor Colombia (13th vs 19th) and market implies 43.5% win probability vs 26.5%
Colombia's recent knockout experience (Copa America) and tight wins suggest tournament resilience

Risk

Switzerland's attacking form (10 goals in 5) could exploit any Colombian defensive lapse
Knockout matches often favor draws; 31.5% draw probability reflects tight matchup uncertainty

◉ Our pick
Switzerland · 3.77 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

Pick history

5 open · 102 settled

World Cup

5 open · 92 settled

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Result	CLV
19 Jul	World Cup 2026	Netherlands	23.0	OPEN	−21.8%
7 Jul	Switzerland v Colombia	Switzerland	3.77	OPEN	−0.1%
7 Jul	Argentina v Egypt	Draw	4.88	OPEN	+0.0%
6 Jul	United States v Belgium	Draw	3.39	OPEN	−3.4%
6 Jul	Portugal v Spain	Spain	1.94	OPEN	−2.0%
5 Jul	Mexico v England	Draw	3.28	LOST	+3.3%
5 Jul	Brazil v Norway	Brazil	1.94	LOST	−0.1%
4 Jul	Paraguay v France	France	1.2	WON	+0.2%
4 Jul	Canada v Morocco	Morocco	1.87	WON	+1.9%
3 Jul	Colombia v Ghana	Draw	4.08	LOST	−0.0%
3 Jul	Argentina v Cabo Verde	Argentina	1.17	WON	−1.1%
3 Jul	Australia v Egypt	Egypt	2.6	LOST	+0.1%
2 Jul	Switzerland v Algeria	Switzerland	2.11	WON	+0.2%
2 Jul	Portugal v Croatia	Croatia	5.13	LOST	+0.0%
2 Jul	Spain v Austria	Spain	1.34	WON	−1.5%
1 Jul	United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina	United States	1.4	WON	+0.1%
1 Jul	Belgium v Senegal	Senegal	3.77	LOST	—
1 Jul	England v DR Congo	England	1.31	WON	—
30 Jun	Mexico v Ecuador	Mexico	2.3	WON	+0.0%
30 Jun	France v Sweden	France	1.31	WON	+1.5%
30 Jun	Côte d'Ivoire v Norway	Norway	2.11	WON	−4.0%
29 Jun	Netherlands v Morocco	Netherlands	2.2	WON	+0.1%
29 Jun	Germany v Paraguay	Germany	1.38	LOST	+0.1%
29 Jun	Brazil v Japan	Brazil	1.74	WON	+0.1%
28 Jun	South Africa v Canada	Canada	1.68	WON	—
27 Jun	Algeria v Austria	Draw	2.36	WON	+1.5%
27 Jun	Jordan v Argentina	Argentina	1.21	WON	−3.0%
27 Jun	Colombia v Portugal	Portugal	1.96	LOST	+0.2%
27 Jun	DR Congo v Uzbekistan	DR Congo	1.81	WON	−0.3%
27 Jun	Croatia v Ghana	Draw	3.4	LOST	+1.1%
27 Jun	Panama v England	England	1.2	WON	−1.5%
26 Jun	New Zealand v Belgium	Belgium	1.21	WON	−0.7%
26 Jun	Egypt v Iran	Egypt	2.56	LOST	−1.4%
26 Jun	Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia	Cape Verde	2.6	LOST	+0.2%
26 Jun	Uruguay v Spain	Spain	1.56	WON	−0.9%
26 Jun	Norway v France	France	1.71	WON	−2.3%
26 Jun	Senegal v Iraq	Senegal	1.26	WON	−1.3%
25 Jun	Paraguay v Australia	Draw	2.4	WON	+1.5%
25 Jun	Turkey v USA	Draw	4.35	LOST	+0.3%
25 Jun	Japan v Sweden	Draw	3.6	WON	−1.6%
25 Jun	Tunisia v Netherlands	Netherlands	1.16	WON	+1.0%
25 Jun	Curaçao v Ivory Coast	Ivory Coast	1.18	WON	−2.2%
25 Jun	Ecuador v Germany	Germany	2.0	LOST	+14.8%
24 Jun	South Africa v South Korea	South Korea	1.69	LOST	+1.7%
24 Jun	Czech Republic v Mexico	Draw	4.14	LOST	+1.1%
24 Jun	Scotland v Brazil	Brazil	1.42	WON	+4.4%
24 Jun	Morocco v Haiti	Morocco	1.23	WON	+0.8%
24 Jun	Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar	Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.49	WON	+6.3%
24 Jun	Switzerland v Canada	Draw	3.15	LOST	+0.0%
23 Jun	Colombia v DR Congo	Colombia	1.56	WON	−4.3%
23 Jun	Panama v Croatia	Croatia	1.59	WON	+1.6%
23 Jun	England v Ghana	England	1.25	LOST	−1.0%
23 Jun	Portugal v Uzbekistan	Portugal	1.25	WON	+3.3%
22 Jun	Jordan v Algeria	Algeria	1.62	WON	+4.4%
22 Jun	Norway v Senegal	Norway	2.44	WON	+8.4%
22 Jun	France v Iraq	France	1.12	WON	+0.5%
22 Jun	Argentina v Austria	Argentina	1.63	WON	+6.5%
21 Jun	New Zealand v Egypt	Egypt	1.66	WON	−0.6%
21 Jun	Uruguay v Cape Verde	Uruguay	1.54	LOST	+0.9%
21 Jun	Belgium v Iran	Belgium	1.47	LOST	−1.7%
21 Jun	Spain v Saudi Arabia	Spain	1.13	WON	−1.5%
20 Jun	Tunisia v Japan	Japan	1.61	WON	+1.2%
20 Jun	Ecuador v Curaçao	Ecuador	1.14	LOST	−1.5%
20 Jun	Germany v Ivory Coast	Germany	1.59	WON	+0.9%
20 Jun	Netherlands v Sweden	Netherlands	1.78	WON	+0.5%
19 Jun	Turkey v Paraguay	Turkey	2.08	LOST	−2.2%
19 Jun	Brazil v Haiti	Brazil	1.14	WON	—
19 Jun	Scotland v Morocco	Morocco	1.81	WON	—
19 Jun	USA v Australia	USA	1.66	WON	—
18 Jun	Mexico v South Korea	Draw	3.5	LOST	+1.5%
18 Jun	Canada v Qatar	Draw	6.25	LOST	−0.9%
18 Jun	Switzerland v Bosnia & Herzegovina	Draw	4.3	LOST	+0.4%
18 Jun	Czech Republic v South Africa	Czech Republic	1.83	LOST	−4.4%
17 Jun	Uzbekistan v Colombia	Colombia	1.42	WON	−0.2%
17 Jun	Ghana v Panama	Ghana	2.28	WON	−4.8%
17 Jun	England v Croatia	England	1.77	WON	−1.8%
17 Jun	Portugal v DR Congo	Portugal	1.33	LOST	−1.6%
16 Jun	Austria v Jordan	Austria	1.37	WON	−2.5%
16 Jun	Argentina v Algeria	Argentina	1.43	WON	−10.1%
16 Jun	Iraq v Norway	Norway	1.22	WON	−2.3%
16 Jun	France v Senegal	France	1.5	WON	−4.2%
15 Jun	Iran v New Zealand	Iran	1.89	LOST	−6.5%
15 Jun	Saudi Arabia v Uruguay	Uruguay	1.48	LOST	−3.8%
15 Jun	Belgium v Egypt	Draw	4.1	WON	−1.6%
15 Jun	Spain v Cape Verde	Spain	1.12	LOST	−1.2%
14 Jun	Sweden v Tunisia	Sweden	1.99	WON	−0.4%
14 Jun	Ivory Coast v Ecuador	Draw	2.95	LOST	−1.9%
14 Jun	Netherlands v Japan	Draw	3.7	WON	−1.2%
14 Jun	Germany v Curaçao	Germany	1.06	WON	−1.4%
13 Jun	Australia v Turkey	Turkey	1.78	LOST	+2.8%
13 Jun	Haiti v Scotland	Scotland	1.6	WON	−2.4%
13 Jun	Brazil v Morocco	Brazil	1.73	LOST	−1.2%
13 Jun	Qatar v Switzerland	Switzerland	1.27	LOST	+0.3%
12 Jun	USA v Paraguay	USA	2.04	WON	−5.0%
12 Jun	Canada v Bosnia & Herzegovina	Canada	1.86	LOST	−1.6%
11 Jun	South Korea v Czech Republic	Draw	3.25	LOST	+0.3%
11 Jun	Mexico v South Africa	Mexico	1.47	WON	+0.5%

J1 League archive

10 settled

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Result	CLV
6 Jun	Kawasaki Frontale v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC	Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC	2.03	WON	—
6 Jun	Kashiwa Reysol v Kyoto Purple Sanga	Kashiwa Reysol	1.98	LOST	—
6 Jun	Yokohama F Marinos v Shimizu S Pulse	Yokohama F Marinos	2.4	WON	—
6 Jun	Urawa Red Diamonds v Fagiano Okayama	Urawa Red Diamonds	1.96	LOST	—
6 Jun	Tokyo Verdy v Gamba Osaka	Gamba Osaka	2.63	WON	—
6 Jun	FC Machida Zelvia v Nagoya Grampus	FC Machida Zelvia	2.11	WON	—
6 Jun	Mito HollyHock v V-Varen Nagasaki	Mito HollyHock	2.3	LOST	—
6 Jun	JEF United Chiba v Avispa Fukuoka	Avispa Fukuoka	2.65	WON	—
6 Jun	FC Tokyo v Cerezo Osaka	Draw	3.72	LOST	—
6 Jun	Kashima Antlers v Vissel Kobe	Kashima Antlers	2.5	WON	—

World Cup

Winner odds

WC 2026 Simulator

Pick history

World Cup

J1 League archive