soccerholic

soccerholic.

Polymarket World Cup markets — public record

Record

61W · 37L

P/L

+$1,033

ROI

+10%

Avg CLV

-0.3%

P/L assumes $100 flat stake per pick · every pick public, including losses

World Cup

4 Jul – 5 Jul

Canada vs Morocco

World Cup · knockout · 4 Jul · Polymarket

Canada18.5%

Draw27.5%

Morocco54.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

Canada

5.41

Polymarket

Draw

3.64

Polymarket

Morocco

1.83

Polymarket

Amount$

Canada wins

$541

Draw

$364

Morocco wins

$183

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

Canada — last 5

W 1–0 South AfricaL 1–2 SwitzerlandW 6–0 QatarD 1–1 Bosnia and Herze...W 5–1 South Korea W

Morocco — last 5

W 4–3 NetherlandsW 4–2 HaitiW 1–0 ScotlandD 1–1 BrazilW 1–0 Congo

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

2-1

Morocco · Medium

Soccerholic AI

Morocco's superior FIFA rank and tournament form edge Canada in a competitive knockout clash.

Morocco ranked 7th vs Canada's 30th, with stronger recent World Cup performances including win over Netherlands
Morocco earned 13 points in last 5 matches vs Canada's 10, showing better consistency
Market heavily favors Morocco at 54.5% implied probability vs Canada's 18.5%

Risk

Canada's attacking form (14 goals in 5 matches) could exploit Morocco's defensive vulnerabilities (6 conceded)
Knockout matches often produce tight results; Canada's recent win over South Africa shows competitive ability

◉ Our pick
Morocco · 1.87 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

Paraguay vs France

World Cup · knockout · 4 Jul · Polymarket

Paraguay4.5%

Draw12.5%

France83.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

Paraguay

22.22

Polymarket

Draw

8.0

Polymarket

France

1.2

Polymarket

Amount$

Paraguay wins

$2,222

Draw

$800

France wins

$120

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

Paraguay — last 5

W 5–4 GermanyD 0–0 AustraliaW 1–0 TurkiyeL 1–4 USAL 1–2 Costa Rica

France — last 5

W 3–0 SwedenW 4–1 NorwayW 3–0 IraqW 3–1 SenegalW 3–1 Azerbaijan

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

2-0

France · High

Soccerholic AI

France's superior form and FIFA rank make them heavy favorites in this knockout clash.

France unbeaten in last 5 with 16 goals scored and only 3 conceded, showing dominant form
FIFA rank gap massive: France 3rd vs Paraguay 41st reflects significant quality difference
Market implies 83.5% France win probability with heavy volume backing their superiority

Risk

Paraguay's recent 5-4 win over Germany shows knockout upset potential
Knockout format increases variance; single-elimination pressure can produce surprises

◉ Our pick
France · 1.2 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

Brazil vs Norway

World Cup · knockout · 5 Jul · Polymarket

Brazil51.5%

Draw26.5%

Norway21.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

Brazil

1.94

Polymarket

Draw

3.77

Polymarket

Norway

4.65

Polymarket

Amount$

Brazil wins

$194

Draw

$377

Norway wins

$465

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

Brazil — last 5

W 2–1 JapanW 3–0 ScotlandW 3–0 HaitiD 1–1 MoroccoD 1–1 Colombia

Norway — last 5

W 2–1 Côte d'IvoireL 1–4 FranceW 3–2 SenegalW 4–1 IraqW 4–1 Italy

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

2-1

Brazil · Medium

Soccerholic AI

Brazil edges Norway in tight knockout match, superior FIFA ranking and recent form provide narrow advantage.

Brazil ranked 6th vs Norway 31st, with stronger defensive record (3 GA vs 9 GA in last 5 matches)
Brazil unbeaten in last 4 World Cup matches (3W-1D), showing tournament consistency
Market implies 51.5% Brazil win vs 21.5% Norway, reflecting quality gap despite competitive odds

Risk

Norway scored 14 goals in last 5 matches, showing attacking threat that could exploit Brazil
Knockout format increases draw probability; Norway's recent wins show they can compete at this level

◉ Our pick
Brazil · 1.94 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

Pick history

4 open · 98 settled

World Cup

4 open · 88 settled

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Result	CLV
19 Jul	World Cup 2026	Netherlands	23.0	OPEN	−21.8%
5 Jul	Brazil v Norway	Brazil	1.94	OPEN	−0.1%
4 Jul	Paraguay v France	France	1.2	OPEN	+0.2%
4 Jul	Canada v Morocco	Morocco	1.87	OPEN	+1.9%
3 Jul	Colombia v Ghana	Draw	4.08	LOST	−0.0%
3 Jul	Argentina v Cabo Verde	Argentina	1.17	WON	−1.1%
3 Jul	Australia v Egypt	Egypt	2.6	LOST	+0.1%
2 Jul	Switzerland v Algeria	Switzerland	2.11	WON	+0.2%
2 Jul	Portugal v Croatia	Croatia	5.13	LOST	+0.0%
2 Jul	Spain v Austria	Spain	1.34	WON	−1.5%
1 Jul	United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina	United States	1.4	WON	+0.1%
1 Jul	Belgium v Senegal	Senegal	3.77	LOST	—
1 Jul	England v DR Congo	England	1.31	WON	—
30 Jun	Mexico v Ecuador	Mexico	2.3	WON	+0.0%
30 Jun	France v Sweden	France	1.31	WON	+1.5%
30 Jun	Côte d'Ivoire v Norway	Norway	2.11	WON	−4.0%
29 Jun	Netherlands v Morocco	Netherlands	2.2	WON	+0.1%
29 Jun	Germany v Paraguay	Germany	1.38	LOST	+0.1%
29 Jun	Brazil v Japan	Brazil	1.74	WON	+0.1%
28 Jun	South Africa v Canada	Canada	1.68	WON	—
27 Jun	Algeria v Austria	Draw	2.36	WON	+1.5%
27 Jun	Jordan v Argentina	Argentina	1.21	WON	−3.0%
27 Jun	Colombia v Portugal	Portugal	1.96	LOST	+0.2%
27 Jun	DR Congo v Uzbekistan	DR Congo	1.81	WON	−0.3%
27 Jun	Croatia v Ghana	Draw	3.4	LOST	+1.1%
27 Jun	Panama v England	England	1.2	WON	−1.5%
26 Jun	New Zealand v Belgium	Belgium	1.21	WON	−0.7%
26 Jun	Egypt v Iran	Egypt	2.56	LOST	−1.4%
26 Jun	Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia	Cape Verde	2.6	LOST	+0.2%
26 Jun	Uruguay v Spain	Spain	1.56	WON	−0.9%
26 Jun	Norway v France	France	1.71	WON	−2.3%
26 Jun	Senegal v Iraq	Senegal	1.26	WON	−1.3%
25 Jun	Paraguay v Australia	Draw	2.4	WON	+1.5%
25 Jun	Turkey v USA	Draw	4.35	LOST	+0.3%
25 Jun	Japan v Sweden	Draw	3.6	WON	−1.6%
25 Jun	Tunisia v Netherlands	Netherlands	1.16	WON	+1.0%
25 Jun	Curaçao v Ivory Coast	Ivory Coast	1.18	WON	−2.2%
25 Jun	Ecuador v Germany	Germany	2.0	LOST	+14.8%
24 Jun	South Africa v South Korea	South Korea	1.69	LOST	+1.7%
24 Jun	Czech Republic v Mexico	Draw	4.14	LOST	+1.1%
24 Jun	Scotland v Brazil	Brazil	1.42	WON	+4.4%
24 Jun	Morocco v Haiti	Morocco	1.23	WON	+0.8%
24 Jun	Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar	Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.49	WON	+6.3%
24 Jun	Switzerland v Canada	Draw	3.15	LOST	+0.0%
23 Jun	Colombia v DR Congo	Colombia	1.56	WON	−4.3%
23 Jun	Panama v Croatia	Croatia	1.59	WON	+1.6%
23 Jun	England v Ghana	England	1.25	LOST	−1.0%
23 Jun	Portugal v Uzbekistan	Portugal	1.25	WON	+3.3%
22 Jun	Jordan v Algeria	Algeria	1.62	WON	+4.4%
22 Jun	Norway v Senegal	Norway	2.44	WON	+8.4%
22 Jun	France v Iraq	France	1.12	WON	+0.5%
22 Jun	Argentina v Austria	Argentina	1.63	WON	+6.5%
21 Jun	New Zealand v Egypt	Egypt	1.66	WON	−0.6%
21 Jun	Uruguay v Cape Verde	Uruguay	1.54	LOST	+0.9%
21 Jun	Belgium v Iran	Belgium	1.47	LOST	−1.7%
21 Jun	Spain v Saudi Arabia	Spain	1.13	WON	−1.5%
20 Jun	Tunisia v Japan	Japan	1.61	WON	+1.2%
20 Jun	Ecuador v Curaçao	Ecuador	1.14	LOST	−1.5%
20 Jun	Germany v Ivory Coast	Germany	1.59	WON	+0.9%
20 Jun	Netherlands v Sweden	Netherlands	1.78	WON	+0.5%
19 Jun	Turkey v Paraguay	Turkey	2.08	LOST	−2.2%
19 Jun	Brazil v Haiti	Brazil	1.14	WON	—
19 Jun	Scotland v Morocco	Morocco	1.81	WON	—
19 Jun	USA v Australia	USA	1.66	WON	—
18 Jun	Mexico v South Korea	Draw	3.5	LOST	+1.5%
18 Jun	Canada v Qatar	Draw	6.25	LOST	−0.9%
18 Jun	Switzerland v Bosnia & Herzegovina	Draw	4.3	LOST	+0.4%
18 Jun	Czech Republic v South Africa	Czech Republic	1.83	LOST	−4.4%
17 Jun	Uzbekistan v Colombia	Colombia	1.42	WON	−0.2%
17 Jun	Ghana v Panama	Ghana	2.28	WON	−4.8%
17 Jun	England v Croatia	England	1.77	WON	−1.8%
17 Jun	Portugal v DR Congo	Portugal	1.33	LOST	−1.6%
16 Jun	Austria v Jordan	Austria	1.37	WON	−2.5%
16 Jun	Argentina v Algeria	Argentina	1.43	WON	−10.1%
16 Jun	Iraq v Norway	Norway	1.22	WON	−2.3%
16 Jun	France v Senegal	France	1.5	WON	−4.2%
15 Jun	Iran v New Zealand	Iran	1.89	LOST	−6.5%
15 Jun	Saudi Arabia v Uruguay	Uruguay	1.48	LOST	−3.8%
15 Jun	Belgium v Egypt	Draw	4.1	WON	−1.6%
15 Jun	Spain v Cape Verde	Spain	1.12	LOST	−1.2%
14 Jun	Sweden v Tunisia	Sweden	1.99	WON	−0.4%
14 Jun	Ivory Coast v Ecuador	Draw	2.95	LOST	−1.9%
14 Jun	Netherlands v Japan	Draw	3.7	WON	−1.2%
14 Jun	Germany v Curaçao	Germany	1.06	WON	−1.4%
13 Jun	Australia v Turkey	Turkey	1.78	LOST	+2.8%
13 Jun	Haiti v Scotland	Scotland	1.6	WON	−2.4%
13 Jun	Brazil v Morocco	Brazil	1.73	LOST	−1.2%
13 Jun	Qatar v Switzerland	Switzerland	1.27	LOST	+0.3%
12 Jun	USA v Paraguay	USA	2.04	WON	−5.0%
12 Jun	Canada v Bosnia & Herzegovina	Canada	1.86	LOST	−1.6%
11 Jun	South Korea v Czech Republic	Draw	3.25	LOST	+0.3%
11 Jun	Mexico v South Africa	Mexico	1.47	WON	+0.5%

J1 League archive

10 settled

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Result	CLV
6 Jun	Kawasaki Frontale v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC	Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC	2.03	WON	—
6 Jun	Kashiwa Reysol v Kyoto Purple Sanga	Kashiwa Reysol	1.98	LOST	—
6 Jun	Yokohama F Marinos v Shimizu S Pulse	Yokohama F Marinos	2.4	WON	—
6 Jun	Urawa Red Diamonds v Fagiano Okayama	Urawa Red Diamonds	1.96	LOST	—
6 Jun	Tokyo Verdy v Gamba Osaka	Gamba Osaka	2.63	WON	—
6 Jun	FC Machida Zelvia v Nagoya Grampus	FC Machida Zelvia	2.11	WON	—
6 Jun	Mito HollyHock v V-Varen Nagasaki	Mito HollyHock	2.3	LOST	—
6 Jun	JEF United Chiba v Avispa Fukuoka	Avispa Fukuoka	2.65	WON	—
6 Jun	FC Tokyo v Cerezo Osaka	Draw	3.72	LOST	—
6 Jun	Kashima Antlers v Vissel Kobe	Kashima Antlers	2.5	WON	—

World Cup

Winner odds

WC 2026 Simulator

Pick history

World Cup

J1 League archive