soccerholic

soccerholic.

Polymarket World Cup markets — public record

Record

63W · 37L

P/L

+$1,140

ROI

+11%

Avg CLV

-0.3%

P/L assumes $100 flat stake per pick · every pick public, including losses

World Cup

5 Jul – 7 Jul

Brazil vs Norway

World Cup · knockout · 5 Jul · Polymarket

Brazil53.5%

Draw26.5%

Norway20.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

Brazil

1.87

Polymarket

Draw

3.77

Polymarket

Norway

4.88

Polymarket

Amount$

Brazil wins

$187

Draw

$377

Norway wins

$488

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

Brazil — last 5

W 2–1 JapanW 3–0 ScotlandW 3–0 HaitiD 1–1 MoroccoD 1–1 Colombia

Norway — last 5

W 2–1 Côte d'IvoireL 1–4 FranceW 3–2 SenegalW 4–1 IraqW 4–1 Italy

Team news

Researched update: Brazil are without Raphinha and Lucas Paqueta; Casemiro needs a fitness check. Neymar is pushing for a larger role. Norway are close to full strength, with Julian Ryerson still questionable after a thigh issue. Last checked 4 Jul 11:49 UTC. Team-news notes: Brazil: Raphinha (hamstring injury), Lucas Paqueta (thigh injury), Casemiro (fitness check) · Norway: Julian Ryerson (thigh issue). Source: Soccerholic desk.

AI verdict

2-1

Brazil · Medium

Soccerholic AI

Brazil edge Norway in tight knockout clash despite key absences affecting both sides.

Brazil's superior FIFA ranking (6 vs 31) and tournament pedigree favor them in knockout football
Both teams show strong recent form (11 and 12 points from last 5), but Brazil concede fewer goals (3 vs 9)
Market heavily backs Brazil at 51.5% despite missing Raphinha, Paqueta, and possibly Casemiro

Risk

Brazil's midfield weakened significantly without Paqueta and potentially Casemiro
Norway's attacking form is excellent (14 goals in 5 matches) and could exploit defensive gaps

◉ Our pick
Brazil · 1.94 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

Mexico vs England

World Cup · knockout · 6 Jul · Polymarket

Mexico30.5%

Draw30.5%

England39.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

Mexico

3.28

Polymarket

Draw

3.28

Polymarket

England

2.53

Polymarket

Amount$

Mexico wins

$328

Draw

$328

England wins

$253

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

Mexico — last 5

W 2–0 EcuadorW 3–0 CzechiaW 1–0 Korea RepublicW 2–0 South AfricaW 2–1 Panama

England — last 5

W 2–1 Congo DRW 2–0 PanamaD 0–0 GhanaW 4–2 CroatiaW 2–0 Albania

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

2-1

England · Medium

Soccerholic AI

England's superior FIFA rank and knockout experience edge Mexico in a tight contest.

England ranked 4th vs Mexico 14th, with 39.5% market probability favoring away win
Both teams in excellent form: Mexico 5W (10-1), England 4W-1D (10-3) in last 5 matches
Knockout stage favors England's tournament pedigree despite Mexico's perfect World Cup run

Risk

Mexico's flawless tournament (4 clean sheets in 4 wins) shows defensive solidity
30.5% draw probability significant in knockout match potentially going to extra time

◉ Our pick
Draw · 3.28 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

Portugal vs Spain

World Cup · knockout · 6 Jul · Polymarket

Portugal23.5%

Draw26.5%

Spain51.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

Portugal

4.26

Polymarket

Draw

3.77

Polymarket

Spain

1.94

Polymarket

Amount$

Portugal wins

$426

Draw

$377

Spain wins

$194

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

Portugal — last 5

W 2–1 CroatiaD 0–0 ColombiaW 5–0 UzbekistanD 1–1 Congo DRW 9–1 Armenia

Spain — last 5

W 3–0 AustriaW 1–0 UruguayW 4–0 Saudi ArabiaD 0–0 Cabo VerdeD 2–2 Türkiye

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

1-0

Spain · Medium

Soccerholic AI

Spain's superior form and FIFA rank favor them in a tight knockout clash.

Spain ranked #2 vs Portugal #5, with stronger defensive record (2 GA vs 3 GA in last 5)
Market heavily backs Spain at 51.5% implied probability vs Portugal's 23.5%
Spain won all 3 World Cup group matches, Portugal drew twice including 0-0 vs Colombia

Risk

Knockout matches often tight; 26.5% draw probability reflects competitive balance
Portugal scored 17 goals in last 5 including 9-1 and 5-0 wins, showing attacking threat

◉ Our pick
Spain · 1.94 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

United States vs Belgium

World Cup · knockout · 7 Jul · Polymarket

United States34.5%

Draw29.5%

Belgium37.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

United States

2.9

Polymarket

Draw

3.39

Polymarket

Belgium

2.67

Polymarket

Amount$

United States wins

$290

Draw

$339

Belgium wins

$267

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

United States — last 5

W 2–0 Bosnia and Herze...L 2–3 TurkiyeW 2–0 AustraliaW 4–1 Paraguay

Belgium — last 5

W 3–2 SenegalW 5–1 New ZealandD 0–0 IranD 1–1 EgyptW 7–0 Liechtenstein

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

1-2

Belgium · Medium

Soccerholic AI

Belgium's superior FIFA rank and attacking form edge a tight knockout match against resilient USA.

Belgium ranked 9th vs USA 17th, with stronger recent goal output (16 goals in 5 matches vs 10 in 4)
Belgium won last match 3-2 showing resilience; USA lost 2-3 to Turkiye indicating defensive vulnerability
Market slightly favors Belgium (37.5%) over USA (34.5%) despite home advantage

Risk

USA's home advantage and recent wins over Australia/Paraguay could level the playing field
Knockout matches often tight; 29.5% draw probability suggests extra time is plausible

◉ Our pick
Draw · 3.39 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

Argentina vs Egypt

World Cup · knockout · 7 Jul · Polymarket

Argentina71.5%

Draw20.5%

Egypt9.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

Argentina

1.4

Polymarket

Draw

4.88

Polymarket

Egypt

10.53

Polymarket

Amount$

Argentina wins

$140

Draw

$488

Egypt wins

$1,053

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

Argentina — last 5

W 3–2 Cabo VerdeW 3–1 JordanW 2–0 AustriaW 3–0 AlgeriaW 2–0 Canada

Egypt — last 5

W 5–3 AustraliaD 1–1 IranW 3–1 New ZealandD 1–1 BelgiumW 1–0 Guinea-Bissau

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

2-0

Argentina · High

Soccerholic AI

Argentina's top FIFA rank and superior form should overcome Egypt in knockout stage.

Argentina ranked #1 globally vs Egypt #29, with 71.5% market probability reflecting quality gap
Argentina's perfect 5-0-0 record with 13 goals scored and only 3 conceded shows dominant form
Egypt's mixed form (3-2-0) and weaker defensive record (6 goals conceded) suggests vulnerability

Risk

Knockout format means Egypt only needs to survive 90 minutes for draw and potential penalties
Egypt's recent 5-3 win over Australia shows attacking threat capability

◉ Our pick
Draw · 4.88 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

Switzerland vs Colombia

World Cup · knockout · 7 Jul · Polymarket

Switzerland26.5%

Draw31.5%

Colombia43.5%

View on Polymarket ↗

Polymarket decimal price

Switzerland

3.77

Polymarket

Draw

3.17

Polymarket

Colombia

2.3

Polymarket

Amount$

Switzerland wins

$377

Draw

$317

Colombia wins

$230

Estimated gross return if outcome wins

Recent form

Switzerland — last 5

W 2–0 AlgeriaW 2–1 CanadaW 4–1 Bosnia and Herze...D 1–1 QatarD 1–1 Kosovo

Colombia — last 5

W 1–0 GhanaD 0–0 PortugalW 1–0 Congo DRW 3–1 UzbekistanW 1–0 Uruguay

Team news

API-Football free plan does not include this World Cup season yet. Source: API-Football.

AI verdict

1-0

Colombia · Medium

Soccerholic AI

Colombia's superior form and defensive solidity give them the edge in a tight knockout encounter.

Colombia unbeaten in last 5 with 4 clean sheets vs Switzerland's 1, showing defensive superiority
FIFA rankings favor Colombia (13th vs 19th) and market implies 43.5% win probability vs 26.5%
Colombia's recent knockout experience (Copa America) and tight wins suggest tournament resilience

Risk

Switzerland's attacking form (10 goals in 5) could exploit any Colombian defensive lapse
Knockout matches often favor draws; 31.5% draw probability reflects tight matchup uncertainty

◉ Our pick
Switzerland · 3.77 @ Polymarket · 1.0u
logged before kickoff · tracked vs Polymarket close

Info only, not a tip — you decide. 18+.

Pick history

7 open · 100 settled

World Cup

7 open · 90 settled

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Result	CLV
19 Jul	World Cup 2026	Netherlands	23.0	OPEN	−21.8%
7 Jul	Switzerland v Colombia	Switzerland	3.77	OPEN	—
7 Jul	Argentina v Egypt	Draw	4.88	OPEN	—
6 Jul	United States v Belgium	Draw	3.39	OPEN	—
6 Jul	Portugal v Spain	Spain	1.94	OPEN	—
5 Jul	Mexico v England	Draw	3.28	OPEN	—
5 Jul	Brazil v Norway	Brazil	1.94	OPEN	−0.1%
4 Jul	Paraguay v France	France	1.2	WON	+0.2%
4 Jul	Canada v Morocco	Morocco	1.87	WON	+1.9%
3 Jul	Colombia v Ghana	Draw	4.08	LOST	−0.0%
3 Jul	Argentina v Cabo Verde	Argentina	1.17	WON	−1.1%
3 Jul	Australia v Egypt	Egypt	2.6	LOST	+0.1%
2 Jul	Switzerland v Algeria	Switzerland	2.11	WON	+0.2%
2 Jul	Portugal v Croatia	Croatia	5.13	LOST	+0.0%
2 Jul	Spain v Austria	Spain	1.34	WON	−1.5%
1 Jul	United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina	United States	1.4	WON	+0.1%
1 Jul	Belgium v Senegal	Senegal	3.77	LOST	—
1 Jul	England v DR Congo	England	1.31	WON	—
30 Jun	Mexico v Ecuador	Mexico	2.3	WON	+0.0%
30 Jun	France v Sweden	France	1.31	WON	+1.5%
30 Jun	Côte d'Ivoire v Norway	Norway	2.11	WON	−4.0%
29 Jun	Netherlands v Morocco	Netherlands	2.2	WON	+0.1%
29 Jun	Germany v Paraguay	Germany	1.38	LOST	+0.1%
29 Jun	Brazil v Japan	Brazil	1.74	WON	+0.1%
28 Jun	South Africa v Canada	Canada	1.68	WON	—
27 Jun	Algeria v Austria	Draw	2.36	WON	+1.5%
27 Jun	Jordan v Argentina	Argentina	1.21	WON	−3.0%
27 Jun	Colombia v Portugal	Portugal	1.96	LOST	+0.2%
27 Jun	DR Congo v Uzbekistan	DR Congo	1.81	WON	−0.3%
27 Jun	Croatia v Ghana	Draw	3.4	LOST	+1.1%
27 Jun	Panama v England	England	1.2	WON	−1.5%
26 Jun	New Zealand v Belgium	Belgium	1.21	WON	−0.7%
26 Jun	Egypt v Iran	Egypt	2.56	LOST	−1.4%
26 Jun	Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia	Cape Verde	2.6	LOST	+0.2%
26 Jun	Uruguay v Spain	Spain	1.56	WON	−0.9%
26 Jun	Norway v France	France	1.71	WON	−2.3%
26 Jun	Senegal v Iraq	Senegal	1.26	WON	−1.3%
25 Jun	Paraguay v Australia	Draw	2.4	WON	+1.5%
25 Jun	Turkey v USA	Draw	4.35	LOST	+0.3%
25 Jun	Japan v Sweden	Draw	3.6	WON	−1.6%
25 Jun	Tunisia v Netherlands	Netherlands	1.16	WON	+1.0%
25 Jun	Curaçao v Ivory Coast	Ivory Coast	1.18	WON	−2.2%
25 Jun	Ecuador v Germany	Germany	2.0	LOST	+14.8%
24 Jun	South Africa v South Korea	South Korea	1.69	LOST	+1.7%
24 Jun	Czech Republic v Mexico	Draw	4.14	LOST	+1.1%
24 Jun	Scotland v Brazil	Brazil	1.42	WON	+4.4%
24 Jun	Morocco v Haiti	Morocco	1.23	WON	+0.8%
24 Jun	Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar	Bosnia & Herzegovina	1.49	WON	+6.3%
24 Jun	Switzerland v Canada	Draw	3.15	LOST	+0.0%
23 Jun	Colombia v DR Congo	Colombia	1.56	WON	−4.3%
23 Jun	Panama v Croatia	Croatia	1.59	WON	+1.6%
23 Jun	England v Ghana	England	1.25	LOST	−1.0%
23 Jun	Portugal v Uzbekistan	Portugal	1.25	WON	+3.3%
22 Jun	Jordan v Algeria	Algeria	1.62	WON	+4.4%
22 Jun	Norway v Senegal	Norway	2.44	WON	+8.4%
22 Jun	France v Iraq	France	1.12	WON	+0.5%
22 Jun	Argentina v Austria	Argentina	1.63	WON	+6.5%
21 Jun	New Zealand v Egypt	Egypt	1.66	WON	−0.6%
21 Jun	Uruguay v Cape Verde	Uruguay	1.54	LOST	+0.9%
21 Jun	Belgium v Iran	Belgium	1.47	LOST	−1.7%
21 Jun	Spain v Saudi Arabia	Spain	1.13	WON	−1.5%
20 Jun	Tunisia v Japan	Japan	1.61	WON	+1.2%
20 Jun	Ecuador v Curaçao	Ecuador	1.14	LOST	−1.5%
20 Jun	Germany v Ivory Coast	Germany	1.59	WON	+0.9%
20 Jun	Netherlands v Sweden	Netherlands	1.78	WON	+0.5%
19 Jun	Turkey v Paraguay	Turkey	2.08	LOST	−2.2%
19 Jun	Brazil v Haiti	Brazil	1.14	WON	—
19 Jun	Scotland v Morocco	Morocco	1.81	WON	—
19 Jun	USA v Australia	USA	1.66	WON	—
18 Jun	Mexico v South Korea	Draw	3.5	LOST	+1.5%
18 Jun	Canada v Qatar	Draw	6.25	LOST	−0.9%
18 Jun	Switzerland v Bosnia & Herzegovina	Draw	4.3	LOST	+0.4%
18 Jun	Czech Republic v South Africa	Czech Republic	1.83	LOST	−4.4%
17 Jun	Uzbekistan v Colombia	Colombia	1.42	WON	−0.2%
17 Jun	Ghana v Panama	Ghana	2.28	WON	−4.8%
17 Jun	England v Croatia	England	1.77	WON	−1.8%
17 Jun	Portugal v DR Congo	Portugal	1.33	LOST	−1.6%
16 Jun	Austria v Jordan	Austria	1.37	WON	−2.5%
16 Jun	Argentina v Algeria	Argentina	1.43	WON	−10.1%
16 Jun	Iraq v Norway	Norway	1.22	WON	−2.3%
16 Jun	France v Senegal	France	1.5	WON	−4.2%
15 Jun	Iran v New Zealand	Iran	1.89	LOST	−6.5%
15 Jun	Saudi Arabia v Uruguay	Uruguay	1.48	LOST	−3.8%
15 Jun	Belgium v Egypt	Draw	4.1	WON	−1.6%
15 Jun	Spain v Cape Verde	Spain	1.12	LOST	−1.2%
14 Jun	Sweden v Tunisia	Sweden	1.99	WON	−0.4%
14 Jun	Ivory Coast v Ecuador	Draw	2.95	LOST	−1.9%
14 Jun	Netherlands v Japan	Draw	3.7	WON	−1.2%
14 Jun	Germany v Curaçao	Germany	1.06	WON	−1.4%
13 Jun	Australia v Turkey	Turkey	1.78	LOST	+2.8%
13 Jun	Haiti v Scotland	Scotland	1.6	WON	−2.4%
13 Jun	Brazil v Morocco	Brazil	1.73	LOST	−1.2%
13 Jun	Qatar v Switzerland	Switzerland	1.27	LOST	+0.3%
12 Jun	USA v Paraguay	USA	2.04	WON	−5.0%
12 Jun	Canada v Bosnia & Herzegovina	Canada	1.86	LOST	−1.6%
11 Jun	South Korea v Czech Republic	Draw	3.25	LOST	+0.3%
11 Jun	Mexico v South Africa	Mexico	1.47	WON	+0.5%

J1 League archive

10 settled

Date	Match	Pick	Odds	Result	CLV
6 Jun	Kawasaki Frontale v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC	Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC	2.03	WON	—
6 Jun	Kashiwa Reysol v Kyoto Purple Sanga	Kashiwa Reysol	1.98	LOST	—
6 Jun	Yokohama F Marinos v Shimizu S Pulse	Yokohama F Marinos	2.4	WON	—
6 Jun	Urawa Red Diamonds v Fagiano Okayama	Urawa Red Diamonds	1.96	LOST	—
6 Jun	Tokyo Verdy v Gamba Osaka	Gamba Osaka	2.63	WON	—
6 Jun	FC Machida Zelvia v Nagoya Grampus	FC Machida Zelvia	2.11	WON	—
6 Jun	Mito HollyHock v V-Varen Nagasaki	Mito HollyHock	2.3	LOST	—
6 Jun	JEF United Chiba v Avispa Fukuoka	Avispa Fukuoka	2.65	WON	—
6 Jun	FC Tokyo v Cerezo Osaka	Draw	3.72	LOST	—
6 Jun	Kashima Antlers v Vissel Kobe	Kashima Antlers	2.5	WON	—

World Cup

Winner odds

WC 2026 Simulator

Pick history

World Cup

J1 League archive